According to two community-driven surveys conducted on July 23 — one via Instagram and the other through a comprehensive online questionnaire — State Senator Royce Duplessis holds a strong early lead, including among voters in some of the city’s most politically active and often overlooked wards.
While the election is still months away, and no poll can predict a final outcome, these early results offer a glimpse into voter energy and sentiment across a diverse swath of the city.
Ground Zereaux, a civic data initiative from Newtral Groundz, ran two mayoral preference polls on July 23.
Instagram Straw Poll (807 responses):
Web Poll – GroundZereaux.com (297 responses, including full candidate list and voter demographics):
The alignment between both polls, especially the web sample, which includes full voter geography and behavior insights — suggests that Duplessis is gaining traction not just in name recognition, but in trust and support across wards.
The Ground Zereaux Jotform poll offered a detailed look at voter geography, age, and political affiliation — providing insight no other public poll in the race has yet made available.
Ward Participation (Top 5):
These wards, many of which are historically underserved in both polling and policymaking, represent a diverse cross-section of New Orleans — especially Black, working-class communities with high stakes in the outcome of city leadership.
Demographic Highlights:
Unlike traditional citywide polls, Ground Zereaux’s approach included ward-by-ward breakdowns. Duplessis leads in a majority of reporting wards — including:
Even in wards where the race is tighter — such as Ward 13, where Oliver Thomas holds a slight edge — the data reflects a city in flux. Voters are not just selecting a familiar name; many are responding to candidates they feel understand the moment.
The Ground Zereaux data reveals not just who’s ahead — but where. And in a city like New Orleans, where ward identity shapes political outcomes, geography is strategy.
Ultimately, Duplessis isn’t just leading — he’s winning in the places that make and break mayors. In New Orleans, you don’t win city hall on paper. You win it in the wards — and right now, the swing wards are with Royce.
One of the most unexpected outcomes from the full Ground Zereaux Jotform poll was the performance of Ricky Twiggs, who received 9% of the total vote, finishing ahead of Arthur Hunter and all other candidates outside the top three.
Twiggs, a community mental health advocate and political newcomer, ran on a platform rooted in housing justice, trauma recovery, and civic reform. While he did not lead in any individual ward, his votes were distributed across multiple working-class areas — including Wards 7, 8, and 9 — signaling a quiet but real grassroots appeal among voters disillusioned with establishment choices.
This 9% may reflect more than an outsider bump. It may represent a growing anti-status-quo bloc — one that resonates with younger voters, community organizers, and residents burned by institutional neglect.
In a race likely headed toward a runoff, Twiggs’ voter base could become a swing factor, particularly if he chooses to endorse a candidate or shift toward coalition-building. His numbers suggest that any candidate seeking a runoff spot will need to understand — and not ignore — the political anxiety his campaign has tapped into.
Let me know if you want this expanded into a standalone op-ed, voter profile deep dive, or visual segment highlighting where Twiggs polled strongest.
The most recent poll released by Faucheux Strategies and reported by Fox 8 and NOLA.com showed Helena Moreno with 47% support, followed by Oliver Thomas and Royce Duplessis both in the mid-teens. That poll, based on 600 landline and cellphone respondents, did not include ward-level detail.
The divergence between the two polls may reflect differences in methodology:
This contrast doesn’t invalidate either data set. Instead, it underscores that different parts of the city may be moving in different directions — and that campaign strategies must adapt accordingly.
Ground Zereaux does not endorse candidates. Our goal is to bring transparency to how New Orleanians are thinking — from Instagram timelines to ward-based voter data.
As October approaches, we’ll continue providing open-access insights that reflect the range of voices, priorities, and neighborhoods that make up the city.
Because in New Orleans, every ward matters — and every voice should count.