Latest Mayoral Poll Shows Royce Duplessis Leading Across Key Wards in New Orleans

In a city defined by neighborhood identity and historical divides, early polling from Ground Zereaux suggests a potential reshaping of New Orleans’ political map ahead of the 2025 mayoral election.

According to two community-driven surveys conducted on July 23 — one via Instagram and the other through a comprehensive online questionnaire — State Senator Royce Duplessis holds a strong early lead, including among voters in some of the city’s most politically active and often overlooked wards.

While the election is still months away, and no poll can predict a final outcome, these early results offer a glimpse into voter energy and sentiment across a diverse swath of the city.

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🗳️ Two Polls, One Story of Momentum

Ground Zereaux, a civic data initiative from Newtral Groundz, ran two mayoral preference polls on July 23.

Instagram Straw Poll (807 responses):

• Royce Duplessis – 49%
• Helena Moreno – 38%
• Oliver Thomas – 7%
• Arthur Hunter – 6%

Web Poll – GroundZereaux.com (297 responses, including full candidate list and voter demographics):

• Royce Duplessis – 55%
• Helena Moreno – 18%
• Oliver Thomas – 16%
• Ricky Twiggs – 9%
• Arthur Hunter – 2%
• All others – <1%

The alignment between both polls, especially the web sample, which includes full voter geography and behavior insights — suggests that Duplessis is gaining traction not just in name recognition, but in trust and support across wards.

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🧭 Who Was Polled — and Why That Matters

The Ground Zereaux Jotform poll offered a detailed look at voter geography, age, and political affiliation — providing insight no other public poll in the race has yet made available.

Ward Participation (Top 5):

• Ward 9 (Upper & Lower 9th) – 27%
• Ward 7 (Mid-City) – 21%
• Ward 15 (Algiers) – 10%
• Ward 8 – 7%
• Ward 17 – 7%

These wards, many of which are historically underserved in both polling and policymaking, represent a diverse cross-section of New Orleans — especially Black, working-class communities with high stakes in the outcome of city leadership.

Demographic Highlights:

• 97% of respondents said they are “very likely” to vote in October
• Age 36–50 made up over 50% of responses
• 76% identified as Democrats, 21% as Independents
• Top issues: Infrastructure (20%), Jobs (19%), Crime & Safety (19%)

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🗺️ Ward-Level Trends: A First in Public Polling

Unlike traditional citywide polls, Ground Zereaux’s approach included ward-by-ward breakdowns. Duplessis leads in a majority of reporting wards — including:

• Ward 12: 89% of the vote
• Ward 11: 60%
• Ward 10: 50%
• Ward 3: 67%
• Ward 5: 75%

Even in wards where the race is tighter — such as Ward 13, where Oliver Thomas holds a slight edge — the data reflects a city in flux. Voters are not just selecting a familiar name; many are responding to candidates they feel understand the moment.

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🧩 Where the Candidates Lead — and Why It Makes Sense

The Ground Zereaux data reveals not just who’s ahead — but where. And in a city like New Orleans, where ward identity shapes political outcomes, geography is strategy.

• Royce Duplessis leads decisively in Wards 7, 9, 11, 12, 10, 3, and 5, including the city’s most historically important and politically active Black neighborhoods. His dominance in Wards 7 and 9 is especially significant
• Together, these two wards are the bellwethers of any serious citywide campaign. Their collective turnout often determines runoff outcomes. Duplessis’s commanding position here suggests he’s consolidating a coalition of trust across age, class, and generation.
• Helena Moreno holds strongest in Ward 14, which includes parts of Uptown and Carrollton — neighborhoods with a blend of white progressives and older homeowners. Her appeal in these areas reflects her moderate messaging, policy credentials, and institutional support.
• Oliver Thomas performs best in Ward 13, covering Broadmoor, Freret, and stretches of Uptown. His base there reflects his legacy standing among older Black voters, though the ward’s increasing diversity and development may be splintering traditional coalitions.
• Ricky Twiggs shows modest but consistent support across Wards 7–9, pointing to appeal with younger, activist-minded voters — particularly those focused on housing, mental health, and systemic reform.

Ultimately, Duplessis isn’t just leading — he’s winning in the places that make and break mayors. In New Orleans, you don’t win city hall on paper. You win it in the wards — and right now, the swing wards are with Royce.

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🌱 Ricky Twiggs’ 9%: Protest Vote or Emerging Coalition?

One of the most unexpected outcomes from the full Ground Zereaux Jotform poll was the performance of Ricky Twiggs, who received 9% of the total vote, finishing ahead of Arthur Hunter and all other candidates outside the top three.

Twiggs, a community mental health advocate and political newcomer, ran on a platform rooted in housing justice, trauma recovery, and civic reform. While he did not lead in any individual ward, his votes were distributed across multiple working-class areas — including Wards 7, 8, and 9 — signaling a quiet but real grassroots appeal among voters disillusioned with establishment choices.

This 9% may reflect more than an outsider bump. It may represent a growing anti-status-quo bloc — one that resonates with younger voters, community organizers, and residents burned by institutional neglect.

In a race likely headed toward a runoff, Twiggs’ voter base could become a swing factor, particularly if he chooses to endorse a candidate or shift toward coalition-building. His numbers suggest that any candidate seeking a runoff spot will need to understand — and not ignore — the political anxiety his campaign has tapped into.

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🔍 Comparison to Traditional Polls

The most recent poll released by Faucheux Strategies and reported by Fox 8 and NOLA.com showed Helena Moreno with 47% support, followed by Oliver Thomas and Royce Duplessis both in the mid-teens. That poll, based on 600 landline and cellphone respondents, did not include ward-level detail.

The divergence between the two polls may reflect differences in methodology:

• Faucheux poll: Weighted, institutional, and likely reflective of older and more traditional voter bases.
• Ground Zereaux poll: Digitally accessible, neighborhood-oriented, and representative of communities often under-polled by legacy methods.

This contrast doesn’t invalidate either data set. Instead, it underscores that different parts of the city may be moving in different directions — and that campaign strategies must adapt accordingly.

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📣 No Endorsements, Just Engagement

Ground Zereaux does not endorse candidates. Our goal is to bring transparency to how New Orleanians are thinking — from Instagram timelines to ward-based voter data.

As October approaches, we’ll continue providing open-access insights that reflect the range of voices, priorities, and neighborhoods that make up the city.

Because in New Orleans, every ward matters — and every voice should count.